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Was It Really A Good Idea To Sign Furcal And Beltran?

When God freed Albert Pujols from the St. Louis poorhouse in order to pursue his missionary goals in Hollywood, Cardinal Nation was mostly swept into panic. Accustomed to big boppers in the lineup, many fans clamored to see owner Bill DeWitt and GM John Mozeliak “do something” to address the gaping hole left by Pujols’ departure.

In fact, it seemed that Mozeliak himself felt pressure to deliver “something” in order to reassure fans that they were, in fact, still interested in winning. Unfortunately, the subsequent moves made by the Cardinal brass in the last two weeks indicate that they have been making decisions based on panic rather than on building a new core.

Immediately after the Pujols debacle, Mozeliak dumped $14 million dollars on two years of shortstop Rafael Furcal. Over the last four years, Furcal has averaged just 92 games and 400 plate appearances per year – not good. During his time in St. Louis in 2011, fans saw a diminished player who was a generally poor leadoff hitter with a shockingly-high error rate (10 errors in 50 games).

So why did Mozeliak agree to pay a 34 year-old shortstop $7 million a year when a cheap Tyler Greene and his batting line of .323/.422/.579 last year sits on the bench? Fan pressure, mostly. Fans connect the miraculous 2011 World Championship to the arrival of Furcal in August, and they want to see him continue despite little evidence that Furcal contributes very much to any of the wins. There simply wasn’t any real reason to keep Furcal at that price point except to placate frustrated fans who wanted “something done.”

But the real capitulation came yesterday with the signing of Carlos Beltran.

First of all, I really like Beltran. He’s always been a solid player and (seemingly) a decent teammate. And the contract given to him – two years and $26M with a no-trade clause – is probably a win/win deal IF Beltran stays healthy and produces numbers similar to his good comeback year in 2011.

But that’s a big IF around which to build a Pujols-free team. For one, the 35 year-old outfielder’s knees probably contain less organic material than Michael Jackson’s nose. Beltran’s knees are so questionable that he has continued to wear stabilizing braces beneath his uniform to prop himself up  – how encouraging!

Even worse, the signing of Beltran means that Allen Craig will (once again) not have a permanent place in this lineup. “So what?!” scream Cardinal fans, “We have Beltran!” In their starry-eyed wonder, many fans have forgotten or overlooked the fact that Allen Craig was on pace to have the best season on the team in 2011. Yes, better than Pujols and Berkman. Projected out to the 651 plate appearances given to Pujols, Craig (who only had 200 at bats) would’ve posted a WAR of 8.9 at that pace in 2011. By comparison, Pujols posted a WAR of 5.4, and Berkman posted a 5.2. Even though it might be slightly ridiculous to suggest that Craig could actually produce an outrageous WAR like that, the fact remains that he was on pace to outdo the biggest names on this ballclub.

By signing Furcal and Beltran, Cardinal management has folded to the demands of fans angry about Pujols and hungry for a contender at all costs. The signings have made baseball’s slowest team in 2011 even slower, and quite a bit older as well. Meanwhile, intriguing young players like Greene and Craig are pushed aside (yet again) for “all star” players who are expensive and past their prime.

With all of these exciting prospects coming up in the next year, the team needs to focus forward on building a new core of young talent rather than cling fearfully to the past.

  • Joe

    In 58 games in the majors last year Greene’s line was: .212/.322/.288.
    In 150 career games he is hitting a smoking: 218/307/313. That is why he is on
    the bench (or in the minors) next year.  

     

    Furcal is a career 282/348/408 hitter, though he was well
    off that last year. I’d still rather have a player who not just has the
    potential to be a plus bat at SS but has done so in the past.  

     

    If Furcal can stay reasonably healthy and hits anywhere near
    his career avg he could be a real bargain. If Greene hits anywhere near his
    career avg he’d be a hole in the lineup. Furcal is not w/o a risk but is worth
    it.

     

     

    As for Beltran he played 142 games in RF last year and had a
    4.4 WAR and Craig had a WAR of 2.9 and just put two screws into his knee. I’m
    pretty sure that Craig, Beltran, Jay, Berkman, and others will need to rest for
    certain stretches during 2012. And it will be better to have a plus bat to
    replace them than not.

     

    If the Cardinals don’t spend the Pujols money they are cheap.
     If the Cardinals do spend the Pujols money
    they are blocking the young guys. Some people just can’t be happy.  

    • http://www.stlcardinalbaseball.com Ray DeRousse

      Greene has not been given any kind of consistent opportunity in the majors. He hasn’t played more than four consecutive games in the major leagues – that’s ridiculous. He tears it up everywhere else he plays, and deserves a decent shot. As last year proved, much can be altered at midseason if things aren’t working out. Yet, for some reason, Mo decided not to give the guy a chance.

      As for Craig, yeah, he had a 2.4 WAR – in how many at bats compared to Beltran???

      Now that we’ve signed Beltran for two years, we’ve basically committed Craig to the bench or as trade bait. The guy needs a chance in the majors, and signing Beltran for two years negates that opportunity. 

  • Greatdealsonchevys

    I think craig will still get plenty of playing spelling Beltran berk and Holliday. That’s if all three are healthy when he gets back. Odds r one of the will be on the dl 2nd half of the season.
    You are spot on with furcal and Greene. Also, I sure hope that when furcal plays he doesn’t hit leadoff.
    And I am so excited about waino carp and Garcia next year. Garcia in his third year, Carp has one great year left, and wainwright should be lights out after ten or so starts.

    • http://www.facebook.com/VictorFerrai Kyle Dallman

      In my mind we have the best outfield offensively and we have the most depth in the outfield. We have Beltran, Holliday, Craig, Jay, Scumaker, and Chambers.  If they can stay healthy who knows what production we can get from the outfield alone. 
      Then like you said we have a tremendous rotation from the big three alone and if Lohse can have another decent season he might manage to win 15 games. Westbrook sucks and we have to move on past that but he could manage to win 10 plus games he will just have a high ERA. 
      We have a good team with a good balance of youth and veterans, we have a new leader in Matheny with a nice amount of superstar caliber players. We will win the NL Central and I believe we have a shot at winning the World Series. 12 in 12!

  • http://www.facebook.com/patrick.meredith1 Patrick Meredith

    Craig is going to get plenty of time to play.  Beltran is expected to play center field quite a bit, and he wouldn’t have been signed if he couldn’t.  Craig will also most likely be out the first two months of the season.

    Depth is important.  Depth is why we won the World Series when Holliday was out so much.

    Speaking of Depth, without Furcal we would have none at short stop; we would have Greene, and we would have Descalso, who is supposed to be our starting 2B.

    • http://www.facebook.com/VictorFerrai Kyle Dallman

      I agree completely depth is one of the most important things for a winning team. Good pitching, good clubhouse atmosphere, good hitting,good fielding and depth are what make championship teams. 

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