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NLCS Preview And Predictions

NLCS Preview And Predictions

Both the Giants and the Cardinals had to climb out of impossible holes to reach the final step before the World Series. They are similar teams in many respects. Both teams feature great pitching and a great catcher. Both teams struggle with consistent offense. Both teams are tougher than a titanium plate in Chuck Norris’ skull.

Here are some things to watch and some keys to the series if the Cardinals are to advance to the World Series:

PLAYERS TO WATCH: Jon Jay and Angel Pagan.

Jon Jay has the following lines against Giants starters:

BA OBP SLG
Madison Bumgarner .667 .714 1.000
Tim Lincecum .333 .333 .333
Matt Cain .667 .667 .667
Ryan Vogelsong .500 .500 .500
Barry Zito .600 .667 .600
Total .452 .477 .524

Meanwhile, Angel Pagan has the following stats against Cardinal starters:

BA OBP SLG
Adam Wainwright .333 .467 .333
Kyle Lohse .500 .429 .667
Lance Lynn .500 .600 .500
Total .360 .450 .580

KEY TO WINNING: Obviously, keep Buster Posey from doing any damage. Here are Posey’s stats against Cardinal pitching:

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
Adam Wainwright 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 .400 .500 .400
Chris Carpenter 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500
Joe Kelly 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 .500 .667 .500
Lance Lynn 3 1 0 0 1 3 0 2 .333 .333 1.333
Edward Mujica 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 .000 .000 .000
Mitchell Boggs 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000
Fernando Salas 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Total 30 9 1 0 1 6 2 7 .300 .344 .433
Control Buster Posey, and you can control the Giants.

If the Cardinals can somehow neutralize Posey (the Reds certainly couldn’t), the rest of the Giants lineup is less than imposing:

Rk G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI SO BA OBP SLG
1 Buster Posey 148 530 178 39 1 24 103 96 .336 .408 .549
2 Brandon Belt* 145 411 113 27 6 7 56 106 .275 .360 .421
3 Ryan Theriot 104 352 95 16 1 0 28 47 .270 .316 .321
4 Brandon Crawford* 143 435 108 26 3 4 45 95 .248 .304 .349
5 Pablo Sandoval# 108 396 112 25 2 12 63 59 .283 .342 .447
7 Angel Pagan# 154 605 174 38 15 8 56 97 .288 .338 .440
8 Hunter Pence 59 219 48 11 2 7 45 60 .219 .287 .384
9 Gregor Blanco* 141 393 96 14 5 5 34 104 .244 .333 .344
18 Xavier Nady 19 50 12 3 1 1 7 13 .240 .333 .400
Team Totals 162 5558 1495 287 57 103 675 1097 .269 .327 .397
Rank in 16 NL teams 4 3 7 1 16 15 3 4 8

GET MOVING: We need to get Yadier Molina going again.

Here are Molina’s recent offensive numbers:

Split AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
Last 7 days 18 3 0 0 1 4 3 2 .167 .273 .333
Last 14 days 35 8 0 0 2 8 5 3 .229 .302 .400
Last 28 days 78 21 2 0 5 13 13 10 .269 .368 .487

Molina might come alive against San Francisco pitching. Here are his numbers against Giants starters:

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
Barry Zito 16 6 0 0 0 1 3 1 .375 .474 .375
Tim Lincecum 17 7 0 0 0 1 1 1 .412 .444 .412
Matt Cain 14 4 1 0 0 1 1 1 .286 .353 .357
Ryan Vogelsong 11 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 .273 .333 .273
Madison Bumgarner 7 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .286 .375 .286
Total 89 27 4 0 1 5 10 6 .303 .376 .382

DANGER, DANGER:  The Cardinals split their season series against the Giants, suggesting that this could be one well-fought series. However, two of the pitchers the Cardinals used to beat the Giants this season are not on the staff for this NLCS. Here are the season results between these two clubs:

Rk Tm Opp ▴ R RA Win Loss Save
152 boxscore STL SFG W 3 1 Wainwright Bumgarner Motte
153 boxscore STL SFG L 0 15 Vogelsong Kelly
154 boxscore STL SFG L 2 4 Zito Lynn Affeldt
155 boxscore STL SFG W 8 2 Westbrook Cain
156 boxscore STL @ SFG L 5 7 Cain Wainwright Casilla
157 boxscore STL @ SFG W 4 1 Garcia Bumgarner Motte

If the Cardinals can keep Posey from doing much damage in high-RBI spots (like his grand slam against the Reds), we should be able to compete against the Giants.

PREDICTION: Cardinals in six games.

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