NLCS Preview And Predictions
Both the Giants and the Cardinals had to climb out of impossible holes to reach the final step before the World Series. They are similar teams in many respects. Both teams feature great pitching and a great catcher. Both teams struggle with consistent offense. Both teams are tougher than a titanium plate in Chuck Norris’ skull.
Here are some things to watch and some keys to the series if the Cardinals are to advance to the World Series:
PLAYERS TO WATCH: Jon Jay and Angel Pagan.
Jon Jay has the following lines against Giants starters:
| Madison Bumgarner | .667 | .714 | 1.000 |
| Tim Lincecum | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Matt Cain | .667 | .667 | .667 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | .500 | .500 | .500 |
| Barry Zito | .600 | .667 | .600 |
| Total | .452 | .477 | .524 |
Meanwhile, Angel Pagan has the following stats against Cardinal starters:
| Adam Wainwright | .333 | .467 | .333 |
| Kyle Lohse | .500 | .429 | .667 |
| Lance Lynn | .500 | .600 | .500 |
| Total | .360 | .450 | .580 |
KEY TO WINNING: Obviously, keep Buster Posey from doing any damage. Here are Posey’s stats against Cardinal pitching:
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .400 | .500 | .400 |
| Chris Carpenter | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 |
| Joe Kelly | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 | .667 | .500 |
| Lance Lynn | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .333 | .333 | 1.333 |
| Edward Mujica | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Mitchell Boggs | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Fernando Salas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 30 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7 | .300 | .344 | .433 |
- Control Buster Posey, and you can control the Giants.
If the Cardinals can somehow neutralize Posey (the Reds certainly couldn’t), the rest of the Giants lineup is less than imposing:
| Rk | G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buster Posey | 148 | 530 | 178 | 39 | 1 | 24 | 103 | 96 | .336 | .408 | .549 |
| 2 | Brandon Belt* | 145 | 411 | 113 | 27 | 6 | 7 | 56 | 106 | .275 | .360 | .421 |
| 3 | Ryan Theriot | 104 | 352 | 95 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 47 | .270 | .316 | .321 |
| 4 | Brandon Crawford* | 143 | 435 | 108 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 95 | .248 | .304 | .349 |
| 5 | Pablo Sandoval# | 108 | 396 | 112 | 25 | 2 | 12 | 63 | 59 | .283 | .342 | .447 |
| 7 | Angel Pagan# | 154 | 605 | 174 | 38 | 15 | 8 | 56 | 97 | .288 | .338 | .440 |
| 8 | Hunter Pence | 59 | 219 | 48 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 60 | .219 | .287 | .384 |
| 9 | Gregor Blanco* | 141 | 393 | 96 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 104 | .244 | .333 | .344 |
| 18 | Xavier Nady | 19 | 50 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 | .240 | .333 | .400 |
| Team Totals | 162 | 5558 | 1495 | 287 | 57 | 103 | 675 | 1097 | .269 | .327 | .397 | |
| Rank in 16 NL teams | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
GET MOVING: We need to get Yadier Molina going again.
Here are Molina’s recent offensive numbers:
| Split | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 days | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | .167 | .273 | .333 |
| Last 14 days | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | .229 | .302 | .400 |
| Last 28 days | 78 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 10 | .269 | .368 | .487 |
Molina might come alive against San Francisco pitching. Here are his numbers against Giants starters:
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Zito | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | .375 | .474 | .375 |
| Tim Lincecum | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .412 | .444 | .412 |
| Matt Cain | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .286 | .353 | .357 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .273 | .333 | .273 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .286 | .375 | .286 |
| Total | 89 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 6 | .303 | .376 | .382 |
DANGER, DANGER: The Cardinals split their season series against the Giants, suggesting that this could be one well-fought series. However, two of the pitchers the Cardinals used to beat the Giants this season are not on the staff for this NLCS. Here are the season results between these two clubs:
| Rk | Tm | Opp ▴ | R | RA | Win | Loss | Save | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | boxscore | STL | SFG | W | 3 | 1 | Wainwright | Bumgarner | Motte | |
| 153 | boxscore | STL | SFG | L | 0 | 15 | Vogelsong | Kelly | ||
| 154 | boxscore | STL | SFG | L | 2 | 4 | Zito | Lynn | Affeldt | |
| 155 | boxscore | STL | SFG | W | 8 | 2 | Westbrook | Cain | ||
| 156 | boxscore | STL | @ | SFG | L | 5 | 7 | Cain | Wainwright | Casilla |
| 157 | boxscore | STL | @ | SFG | W | 4 | 1 | Garcia | Bumgarner | Motte |
If the Cardinals can keep Posey from doing much damage in high-RBI spots (like his grand slam against the Reds), we should be able to compete against the Giants.
PREDICTION: Cardinals in six games.


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