It’s always fun to try and guess the future. That’s the reason why people play the lottery, read their horoscope, or watch Jersey Shore – we want to know what the future holds!

Predicting the future in baseball is like trying to guess the eventual Republican nominee for President; both depend on constantly-shifting values, unforeseen disasters, and embarrassing episodes. As Adam Wainwright showed last year, predictions can be thrown into disarray with the snap of one little ligament.

As it turned out, the annual ZiPS predictions for the 2011 Cardinals came close to accurate. The computer model for the 2011 team overestimated the performance of Albert Pujols (we all agree he had a “down” year), but underestimated the eventual performances of Yadier Molina and, like everyone else, Lance Berkman. Still, it’s surprising how well the computer model did with its predictions.

The ZiPS model for the 2012 team has been released, and here’s what it looks like:

Player	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI
Matt Holliday	517	.288	.371	.484	84	21	85
Carlos Beltran	397	.282	.363	.474	51	14	52
Lance Berkman	427	.269	.381	.471	68	20	77
David Freese	335	.269	.323	.406	39	9	51
Allen Craig	416	.276	.329	.454	58	16	68
Jon Jay	500	.282	.335	.402	65	9	49
Rafael Furcal	388	.263	.331	.389	60	8	37
Daniel Descalso	329	.263	.328	.378	64	6	54
Yadier Molina	479	.284	.340	.397	44	9	63
Bryan Anderson	346	.246	.308	.358	34	7	33
Tyler Greene	450	.233	.309	.364	66	11	42
Tony Cruz	355	.237	.287	.352	34	6	43
Skip Schumaker	452	.272	.328	.352	55	4	41

I would say that the projections for Carlos Beltran are a bit on the conservative side, as are those for David Freese. Meanwhile, those are fairly optimistic numbers for Allen Craig, who doesn’t figure to see that much playing time with Beltran in the mix. Also, I’d love it if Tyler Greene actually saw 450 at-bats in 2012, which begs the question – did the ZiPS computer factor in the departure of TLR when computing these figures??

Here are the ZiPS projections for the pitching staff:

Player	ERA	W	L	IP
Adam Wainwright	3.12	14	8	173.3
Chris Carpenter	3.49	12	8	201.0
Jaime Garcia	3.58	12	8	183.7
Kyle Lohse	4.37	7	8	123.7
Jake Westbrook	4.52	7	8	127.3
Lance Lynn	4.06	7	7	126.3
Jason Motte	3.12	4	2	57.7
Fernando Salas	3.21	4	3	61.7
Eduardo Sanchez	3.24	3	2	41.7
Marc Rzepczynski	3.62	4	3	64.7
Mitchell Boggs	3.79	3	2	71.3
Kyle McClellan	4.26	6	6	99.3
J.C. Romero	4.46	1	1	34.3

I’m not sure we can win the division if two of our five starters have losing records. I’m sure most people will feel deflated looking at Adam Wainwright’s paltry 14 wins, but the computer probably has the right idea given the fact that Waino will still be partially rehabbing during the start of this season.

I think there is a lot of optimism going into the 2012 season, but these ZiPS projections certainly do bring expectations a little bit closer to Earth. These projections are warning Cardinal Nation against expecting Berkman to reach 30 homers again, or expecting Wainwright to win the Cy Young, or expecting Kyle Lohse to ever be any good.

Perhaps we will see some happy surprises in 2012 that will turn these predictions on their head, but in the meantime, it might be a good idea to approach the coming season with cautious optimism. That way, we will protect ourselves from overwhelming disappointment if 2012 doesn’t go well.

I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade – just providing a healthy dose of reality. HAPPY NEW YEAR!